地震短临综合预报方法的研究     

李文英  平建军 《华北地震科学》1995,13(3):36-43

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用  相似文献   

合肥遥测台网地震速报系统     

刘东旺  黎捷 《地震地磁观测与研究》1995,16(6):27-34

论述了适用于遥测地震台网大震速报的一套计算机处理系统,系统设计以《全国遥测台网观测技术规范》和《近震分析》理论为依据,实现了数据输入,震相选择,数据处理,地震定位,震级计算,结果输出及贮存等多项功能,达到了快速确定地震三要素,提高速报速度和精度之目的,是一个较完善的,实用的速报系统。  相似文献   

Possible creep-related tilt precursors obtained in the Central Apennines (Italy) and in the Southern Caucasus (Georgia)     

F. Bella  P. F. Biagi  M. Caputo  G. Della Monica  A. Ermini  P. V. Manjgaladze  V. Sgrigna  D. O. Zilpimiani 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(2):277-300

Daily averaged tilt component data from two sites of the Central Apennines (Italy) and of the Southern Caucasus (Georgia), respectively, revealed intermediate-term tilts as possible precursors to earthquakes (M=3.0÷4.7) which occurred in the above-mentioned seismic areas within a distance of 50 km from the sites. A good temporal correlation as well as a fair spatial correspondence between these residual tilts (with amplitude and duration of some microradians and months, respectively) and main shocks were pointed out, by removing both secular trends and seasonal thermoelastic effects from the raw tilts. An attempt was made to justify the above-mentioned results, based on the assumption that the observed intermediate-term preseismic tilts are the manifestation of aseismic creep episodes of comparable duration in the fault materials of thrust faults close to the tilt sites. The mechanism refers to a strain field slowly propagating from the preparation focal area to the tilt site, through crustal blocks separated by weak transition zones. This propagation is thought to be the cause of the local aseismic fault slip recorded by the tiltmeters. Previously, both discrete structures and strain propagation effects were revealed in the Central Apennines and are thought also to exist in the Southern Caucasus. As in the past, the rheological properties of fault materials are revealed as viscoelastic ones. In fact, creep equations obtained by applying several viscoelastic models on our data, proved to fit quite well some of the observed tilt precursors, producing viscosity and rigidity values very similar to those reported in literature.Professor Petr Viktorovich Manjgaladze died during the writing of this paper  相似文献   

中国南北带地壳上地幔三维面波速度结构和各向异性   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

陈立华  庄真 《地球物理学报》1992,35(5):574-583

本文用长周期763地震仪面波群速度资料反演了中国南北带及邻区的三维速度结构.其中采集238条瑞利波和358条勒夫波混合频散曲线,使用均等显示滤波方法,并以4°×4°为一格将我国境内分为147格.用随机逆反演方法得到了研究区16格的纯路径频散.面波速度结构及演结果表明:1.莫霍界面深度一般在40-50km之间,最深达65km.总趋势是从东到西加深,且在南北带西侧南北两端向中部明显加深,东侧变化小.2.地幔顶部普遍出现很厚的低速层,上界面一般埋深60-80km.上地幔顶盖厚度一般为20-60km,速度为4.30-4.50km/s.3.研究区普遍存在各向异性,而且勒夫波和瑞利波速度的差值(V_SV-V_SH)的绝对值随深度有增大的特点,在南北带南部和西北部V_SV-V_SH各向异性现象更为明显.  相似文献   

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia     

J. Zahradník  M. Antonini  G. Grünthal  J. Janský  D. Procházková  E. Schmedes  A. Špičak  J. Zedník 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(1):53-71

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.  相似文献   

突发性地面增温与临震前兆——以1988年澜沧、耿马7.6,7.2级地震为例   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

徐秀登  强祖基  赁常恭 《地震地质》1990,12(3):243

本文通过较多的地面温度资料分析,认为1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马地震前几天,震区及其周围大范围的突发性地面增温异常是一种临震前兆,总结了增温异常的时空演变规律与地震活动的关系,并对其形成机制提出初步想法  相似文献   

Effects of dynamic shear strength and time-histories stress analysis on newmark sliding block analyses     

LI Hong-jun  CHI Shi-chun  LIN Gao 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z1):1063-1068

A simplified procedure for evaluating aseismic stability of slope subjected to earthquake shaking, in which the effect of dynamic shear strength and time-history stress on the yielding angular acceleration of sliding block is taken into account, is presented. The fundamental feature of this procedure is the dynamic shear strength. The numerical computations are performed by using the proposed method. It is shown that the computed sliding displacement for a given core dam, with either method of dynamic shear strength properly considered, is more rational compared with the conventional computational results based on static shear strength.  相似文献   

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors accompanying slow slips in the southwest Japan subduction zone   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Kazushige Obara  Hitoshi Hirose 《Tectonophysics》2006,417(1-2):33

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors in southwest Japan exhibit a strong temporal and spatial correlation with slow slip detected by the dense seismic network. The tremor signal is characterized by a low-frequency vibration with a predominant frequency of 0.5–5 Hz without distinct P- or S-wave onset. The tremors are located using the coherent pattern of envelopes over many stations, and are estimated to occur near the transition zone on the plate boundary on the forearc side along the strike of the descending Philippine Sea plate. The belt-like distribution of tremors consists of many clusters. In western Shikoku, the major tremor activity has a recurrence interval of approximately six months, with each episode lasting over a week. The tremor source area migrates during each episode along the strike of the subducting plate with a migration velocity of about 10 km/day. Slow slip events occur contemporaneously with this tremor activity, with a coincident estimated source area that also migrates during each episode. The coupling of tremor and slow slip in western Shikoku is very similar to the episodic tremor and slip phenomenon reported for the Cascadia margin in northwest North America. The duration and recurrence interval of these episodes varies between tremor clusters even on the same subduction zone, attributable to regional difference in the frictional properties of the plate interface.  相似文献   

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Mukhopadhyay  O.P. Mishra  D. Zhao  J.R. Kayal 《Tectonophysics》2006,415(1-4):1-16

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.  相似文献